Overview / Scenarios

Scenario Explorer

Eight different futures for South Africa out to 2040 — each a 'what if things go this way' line. They're possibilities, not predictions.Eight scenarios for South Africa's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.Eight scenario trajectories for South Africa's CC to 2040 — each the P50 of a Monte-Carlo bounded-growth model under distinct assumptions about diffusion rate, governance, and concentration. Scenarios, not probabilistic forecasts.

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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.

CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)

ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence

Conservative

37.6

Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.

2040: P10 36.0 · P50 37.6 · P90 38.8

Baseline

46.7

Current trajectories continue at observed rates.

2040: P10 43.3 · P50 46.7 · P90 50.1

Acceleration

64.0

Capability and adoption compound faster than today.

2040: P10 54.9 · P50 64.0 · P90 72.0

Elite Divergence

46.6

Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.

2040: P10 42.0 · P50 46.6 · P90 50.6

Democratization

67.8

Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.

2040: P10 59.3 · P50 67.8 · P90 76.2

Open-Source Dominance

71.5

Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.

2040: P10 61.1 · P50 71.5 · P90 81.7

Regulatory Constriction

36.4

Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.

2040: P10 35.1 · P50 36.4 · P90 37.6

AGI Emergence

71.2

Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.

2040: P10 54.7 · P50 71.2 · P90 86.7

Methodology: scenario construction →