Overview / Scenarios

Scenario Explorer

Eight different futures for Vietnam out to 2040 — each a 'what if things go this way' line. They're possibilities, not predictions.Eight scenarios for Vietnam's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.Eight scenario trajectories for Vietnam's CC to 2040 — each the P50 of a Monte-Carlo bounded-growth model under distinct assumptions about diffusion rate, governance, and concentration. Scenarios, not probabilistic forecasts.

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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.

CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)

ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence

Conservative

41.5

Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.

2040: P10 40.0 · P50 41.5 · P90 42.8

Baseline

50.9

Current trajectories continue at observed rates.

2040: P10 47.6 · P50 50.9 · P90 54.2

Acceleration

66.9

Capability and adoption compound faster than today.

2040: P10 57.6 · P50 66.9 · P90 74.6

Elite Divergence

51.8

Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.

2040: P10 47.6 · P50 51.8 · P90 56.1

Democratization

70.3

Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.

2040: P10 63.3 · P50 70.3 · P90 78.4

Open-Source Dominance

73.8

Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.

2040: P10 63.8 · P50 73.8 · P90 84.4

Regulatory Constriction

40.2

Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.

2040: P10 38.9 · P50 40.2 · P90 41.5

AGI Emergence

78.3

Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.

2040: P10 59.6 · P50 78.3 · P90 94.0

Methodology: scenario construction →