Overview / Scenarios

Scenario Explorer

Eight different futures for United States out to 2040 — each a 'what if things go this way' line. They're possibilities, not predictions.Eight scenarios for United States's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.Eight scenario trajectories for United States's CC to 2040 — each the P50 of a Monte-Carlo bounded-growth model under distinct assumptions about diffusion rate, governance, and concentration. Scenarios, not probabilistic forecasts.

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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.

CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)

ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence

Conservative

97.7

Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.

2040: P10 94.7 · P50 97.7 · P90 100.2

Baseline

112.0

Current trajectories continue at observed rates.

2040: P10 105.3 · P50 112.0 · P90 117.6

Acceleration

142.1

Capability and adoption compound faster than today.

2040: P10 126.7 · P50 142.1 · P90 156.3

Elite Divergence

147.4

Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.

2040: P10 128.9 · P50 147.4 · P90 166.1

Democratization

116.6

Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.

2040: P10 109.5 · P50 116.6 · P90 123.5

Open-Source Dominance

125.1

Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.

2040: P10 114.8 · P50 125.1 · P90 135.8

Regulatory Constriction

93.3

Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.

2040: P10 91.5 · P50 93.3 · P90 94.9

AGI Emergence

231.6

Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.

2040: P10 173.5 · P50 231.6 · P90 289.1

Methodology: scenario construction →