Overview / Scenarios

Scenario Explorer

Eight different futures for Ukraine out to 2040 — each a 'what if things go this way' line. They're possibilities, not predictions.Eight scenarios for Ukraine's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.Eight scenario trajectories for Ukraine's CC to 2040 — each the P50 of a Monte-Carlo bounded-growth model under distinct assumptions about diffusion rate, governance, and concentration. Scenarios, not probabilistic forecasts.

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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.

CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)

ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence

Conservative

42.4

Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.

2040: P10 40.5 · P50 42.4 · P90 43.6

Baseline

51.6

Current trajectories continue at observed rates.

2040: P10 48.0 · P50 51.6 · P90 55.1

Acceleration

69.1

Capability and adoption compound faster than today.

2040: P10 61.0 · P50 69.1 · P90 76.8

Elite Divergence

52.7

Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.

2040: P10 48.0 · P50 52.7 · P90 57.5

Democratization

71.7

Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.

2040: P10 63.6 · P50 71.7 · P90 80.0

Open-Source Dominance

76.6

Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.

2040: P10 66.1 · P50 76.6 · P90 85.5

Regulatory Constriction

41.1

Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.

2040: P10 39.7 · P50 41.1 · P90 42.2

AGI Emergence

80.9

Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.

2040: P10 64.0 · P50 80.9 · P90 96.6

Methodology: scenario construction →