Scenario Explorer
Eight different futures for Taiwan out to 2040 — each a 'what if things go this way' line. They're possibilities, not predictions.Eight scenarios for Taiwan's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.Eight scenario trajectories for Taiwan's CC to 2040 — each the P50 of a Monte-Carlo bounded-growth model under distinct assumptions about diffusion rate, governance, and concentration. Scenarios, not probabilistic forecasts.
CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)
Conservative
74.6Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.
Baseline
86.9Current trajectories continue at observed rates.
Acceleration
110.8Capability and adoption compound faster than today.
Elite Divergence
107.6Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.
Democratization
96.4Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.
Open-Source Dominance
103.0Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.
Regulatory Constriction
71.4Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.
AGI Emergence
169.7Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.
Methodology: scenario construction →