Overview / Scenarios

Scenario Explorer

Eight different futures for Turkey out to 2040 — each a 'what if things go this way' line. They're possibilities, not predictions.Eight scenarios for Turkey's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.Eight scenario trajectories for Turkey's CC to 2040 — each the P50 of a Monte-Carlo bounded-growth model under distinct assumptions about diffusion rate, governance, and concentration. Scenarios, not probabilistic forecasts.

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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.

CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)

ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence

Conservative

49.0

Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.

2040: P10 47.4 · P50 49.0 · P90 50.4

Baseline

58.7

Current trajectories continue at observed rates.

2040: P10 54.7 · P50 58.7 · P90 62.8

Acceleration

77.8

Capability and adoption compound faster than today.

2040: P10 68.5 · P50 77.8 · P90 85.9

Elite Divergence

63.6

Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.

2040: P10 58.0 · P50 63.6 · P90 70.1

Democratization

76.5

Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.

2040: P10 68.5 · P50 76.5 · P90 85.0

Open-Source Dominance

81.4

Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.

2040: P10 70.7 · P50 81.4 · P90 91.4

Regulatory Constriction

47.3

Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.

2040: P10 46.1 · P50 47.3 · P90 48.7

AGI Emergence

96.3

Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.

2040: P10 75.4 · P50 96.3 · P90 113.6

Methodology: scenario construction →