Overview / Scenarios

Scenario Explorer

Eight different futures for Thailand out to 2040 — each a 'what if things go this way' line. They're possibilities, not predictions.Eight scenarios for Thailand's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.Eight scenario trajectories for Thailand's CC to 2040 — each the P50 of a Monte-Carlo bounded-growth model under distinct assumptions about diffusion rate, governance, and concentration. Scenarios, not probabilistic forecasts.

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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.

CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)

ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence

Conservative

44.2

Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.

2040: P10 42.6 · P50 44.2 · P90 45.6

Baseline

54.1

Current trajectories continue at observed rates.

2040: P10 49.9 · P50 54.1 · P90 57.4

Acceleration

72.2

Capability and adoption compound faster than today.

2040: P10 63.3 · P50 72.2 · P90 81.0

Elite Divergence

56.4

Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.

2040: P10 51.7 · P50 56.4 · P90 62.0

Democratization

74.1

Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.

2040: P10 66.1 · P50 74.1 · P90 81.9

Open-Source Dominance

77.8

Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.

2040: P10 67.9 · P50 77.8 · P90 88.2

Regulatory Constriction

42.8

Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.

2040: P10 41.4 · P50 42.8 · P90 44.2

AGI Emergence

85.4

Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.

2040: P10 67.0 · P50 85.4 · P90 102.4

Methodology: scenario construction →