Overview / Scenarios

Scenario Explorer

Eight different futures for Sweden out to 2040 — each a 'what if things go this way' line. They're possibilities, not predictions.Eight scenarios for Sweden's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.Eight scenario trajectories for Sweden's CC to 2040 — each the P50 of a Monte-Carlo bounded-growth model under distinct assumptions about diffusion rate, governance, and concentration. Scenarios, not probabilistic forecasts.

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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.

CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)

ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence

Conservative

76.4

Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.

2040: P10 74.0 · P50 76.4 · P90 78.2

Baseline

88.3

Current trajectories continue at observed rates.

2040: P10 82.2 · P50 88.3 · P90 93.3

Acceleration

113.0

Capability and adoption compound faster than today.

2040: P10 100.5 · P50 113.0 · P90 123.8

Elite Divergence

112.8

Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.

2040: P10 98.9 · P50 112.8 · P90 124.1

Democratization

96.9

Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.

2040: P10 89.3 · P50 96.9 · P90 104.3

Open-Source Dominance

103.0

Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.

2040: P10 94.2 · P50 103.0 · P90 112.7

Regulatory Constriction

72.8

Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.

2040: P10 71.2 · P50 72.8 · P90 74.2

AGI Emergence

174.1

Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.

2040: P10 131.8 · P50 174.1 · P90 221.0

Methodology: scenario construction →