Scenario Explorer
Eight different futures for Singapore out to 2040 — each a 'what if things go this way' line. They're possibilities, not predictions.Eight scenarios for Singapore's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.Eight scenario trajectories for Singapore's CC to 2040 — each the P50 of a Monte-Carlo bounded-growth model under distinct assumptions about diffusion rate, governance, and concentration. Scenarios, not probabilistic forecasts.
CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)
Conservative
84.0Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.
Baseline
97.0Current trajectories continue at observed rates.
Acceleration
124.5Capability and adoption compound faster than today.
Elite Divergence
127.7Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.
Democratization
102.6Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.
Open-Source Dominance
109.4Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.
Regulatory Constriction
79.9Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.
AGI Emergence
201.1Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.
Methodology: scenario construction →