Overview / Scenarios

Scenario Explorer

Eight different futures for Saudi Arabia out to 2040 — each a 'what if things go this way' line. They're possibilities, not predictions.Eight scenarios for Saudi Arabia's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.Eight scenario trajectories for Saudi Arabia's CC to 2040 — each the P50 of a Monte-Carlo bounded-growth model under distinct assumptions about diffusion rate, governance, and concentration. Scenarios, not probabilistic forecasts.

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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.

CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)

ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence

Conservative

54.8

Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.

2040: P10 53.1 · P50 54.8 · P90 56.2

Baseline

64.3

Current trajectories continue at observed rates.

2040: P10 60.9 · P50 64.3 · P90 67.9

Acceleration

83.7

Capability and adoption compound faster than today.

2040: P10 73.2 · P50 83.7 · P90 92.2

Elite Divergence

71.8

Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.

2040: P10 64.7 · P50 71.8 · P90 78.9

Democratization

80.9

Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.

2040: P10 73.9 · P50 80.9 · P90 88.6

Open-Source Dominance

85.7

Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.

2040: P10 76.1 · P50 85.7 · P90 96.1

Regulatory Constriction

52.9

Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.

2040: P10 51.6 · P50 52.9 · P90 54.2

AGI Emergence

107.4

Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.

2040: P10 85.2 · P50 107.4 · P90 129.7

Methodology: scenario construction →