Overview / Scenarios

Scenario Explorer

Eight different futures for Russia out to 2040 — each a 'what if things go this way' line. They're possibilities, not predictions.Eight scenarios for Russia's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.Eight scenario trajectories for Russia's CC to 2040 — each the P50 of a Monte-Carlo bounded-growth model under distinct assumptions about diffusion rate, governance, and concentration. Scenarios, not probabilistic forecasts.

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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.

CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)

ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence

Conservative

51.8

Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.

2040: P10 50.2 · P50 51.8 · P90 53.2

Baseline

61.7

Current trajectories continue at observed rates.

2040: P10 57.5 · P50 61.7 · P90 65.2

Acceleration

80.1

Capability and adoption compound faster than today.

2040: P10 70.7 · P50 80.1 · P90 89.1

Elite Divergence

67.3

Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.

2040: P10 61.0 · P50 67.3 · P90 74.5

Democratization

78.6

Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.

2040: P10 70.2 · P50 78.6 · P90 86.1

Open-Source Dominance

84.0

Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.

2040: P10 73.5 · P50 84.0 · P90 92.4

Regulatory Constriction

50.1

Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.

2040: P10 48.7 · P50 50.1 · P90 51.3

AGI Emergence

98.7

Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.

2040: P10 79.7 · P50 98.7 · P90 121.1

Methodology: scenario construction →