Overview / Scenarios

Scenario Explorer

Eight different futures for Portugal out to 2040 — each a 'what if things go this way' line. They're possibilities, not predictions.Eight scenarios for Portugal's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.Eight scenario trajectories for Portugal's CC to 2040 — each the P50 of a Monte-Carlo bounded-growth model under distinct assumptions about diffusion rate, governance, and concentration. Scenarios, not probabilistic forecasts.

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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.

CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)

ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence

Conservative

58.9

Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.

2040: P10 57.1 · P50 58.9 · P90 60.2

Baseline

69.0

Current trajectories continue at observed rates.

2040: P10 64.9 · P50 69.0 · P90 73.1

Acceleration

88.8

Capability and adoption compound faster than today.

2040: P10 79.3 · P50 88.8 · P90 98.5

Elite Divergence

78.1

Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.

2040: P10 70.0 · P50 78.1 · P90 85.3

Democratization

85.7

Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.

2040: P10 77.5 · P50 85.7 · P90 94.0

Open-Source Dominance

90.3

Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.

2040: P10 81.0 · P50 90.3 · P90 101.0

Regulatory Constriction

56.7

Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.

2040: P10 55.2 · P50 56.7 · P90 58.0

AGI Emergence

118.7

Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.

2040: P10 93.4 · P50 118.7 · P90 145.9

Methodology: scenario construction →