Overview / Scenarios

Scenario Explorer

Eight different futures for Poland out to 2040 — each a 'what if things go this way' line. They're possibilities, not predictions.Eight scenarios for Poland's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.Eight scenario trajectories for Poland's CC to 2040 — each the P50 of a Monte-Carlo bounded-growth model under distinct assumptions about diffusion rate, governance, and concentration. Scenarios, not probabilistic forecasts.

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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.

CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)

ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence

Conservative

57.0

Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.

2040: P10 55.1 · P50 57.0 · P90 58.6

Baseline

67.1

Current trajectories continue at observed rates.

2040: P10 63.5 · P50 67.1 · P90 70.9

Acceleration

86.4

Capability and adoption compound faster than today.

2040: P10 77.3 · P50 86.4 · P90 96.4

Elite Divergence

75.3

Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.

2040: P10 68.7 · P50 75.3 · P90 82.6

Democratization

83.6

Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.

2040: P10 76.5 · P50 83.6 · P90 91.4

Open-Source Dominance

88.7

Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.

2040: P10 79.2 · P50 88.7 · P90 97.6

Regulatory Constriction

55.1

Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.

2040: P10 53.6 · P50 55.1 · P90 56.4

AGI Emergence

112.0

Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.

2040: P10 86.5 · P50 112.0 · P90 137.2

Methodology: scenario construction →