Overview / Scenarios

Scenario Explorer

Eight different futures for Philippines out to 2040 — each a 'what if things go this way' line. They're possibilities, not predictions.Eight scenarios for Philippines's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.Eight scenario trajectories for Philippines's CC to 2040 — each the P50 of a Monte-Carlo bounded-growth model under distinct assumptions about diffusion rate, governance, and concentration. Scenarios, not probabilistic forecasts.

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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.

CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)

ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence

Conservative

32.2

Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.

2040: P10 30.8 · P50 32.2 · P90 33.2

Baseline

40.8

Current trajectories continue at observed rates.

2040: P10 37.5 · P50 40.8 · P90 43.7

Acceleration

55.0

Capability and adoption compound faster than today.

2040: P10 47.5 · P50 55.0 · P90 63.0

Elite Divergence

38.2

Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.

2040: P10 34.9 · P50 38.2 · P90 41.8

Democratization

62.4

Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.

2040: P10 53.5 · P50 62.4 · P90 70.3

Open-Source Dominance

65.3

Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.

2040: P10 55.6 · P50 65.3 · P90 74.2

Regulatory Constriction

31.2

Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.

2040: P10 30.0 · P50 31.2 · P90 32.4

AGI Emergence

58.2

Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.

2040: P10 47.1 · P50 58.2 · P90 72.4

Methodology: scenario construction →