Scenario Explorer
Eight different futures for Pakistan out to 2040 — each a 'what if things go this way' line. They're possibilities, not predictions.Eight scenarios for Pakistan's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.Eight scenario trajectories for Pakistan's CC to 2040 — each the P50 of a Monte-Carlo bounded-growth model under distinct assumptions about diffusion rate, governance, and concentration. Scenarios, not probabilistic forecasts.
CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)
Conservative
15.0Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.
Baseline
22.9Current trajectories continue at observed rates.
Acceleration
36.7Capability and adoption compound faster than today.
Elite Divergence
19.5Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.
Democratization
44.1Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.
Open-Source Dominance
46.3Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.
Regulatory Constriction
14.2Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.
AGI Emergence
35.6Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.
Methodology: scenario construction →