Overview / Scenarios

Scenario Explorer

Eight different futures for New Zealand out to 2040 — each a 'what if things go this way' line. They're possibilities, not predictions.Eight scenarios for New Zealand's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.Eight scenario trajectories for New Zealand's CC to 2040 — each the P50 of a Monte-Carlo bounded-growth model under distinct assumptions about diffusion rate, governance, and concentration. Scenarios, not probabilistic forecasts.

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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.

CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)

ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence

Conservative

64.0

Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.

2040: P10 62.1 · P50 64.0 · P90 65.3

Baseline

74.7

Current trajectories continue at observed rates.

2040: P10 71.1 · P50 74.7 · P90 78.9

Acceleration

95.5

Capability and adoption compound faster than today.

2040: P10 85.8 · P50 95.5 · P90 105.4

Elite Divergence

86.2

Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.

2040: P10 77.6 · P50 86.2 · P90 96.4

Democratization

90.1

Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.

2040: P10 81.8 · P50 90.1 · P90 98.6

Open-Source Dominance

95.7

Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.

2040: P10 84.6 · P50 95.7 · P90 104.8

Regulatory Constriction

61.6

Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.

2040: P10 60.1 · P50 61.6 · P90 63.0

AGI Emergence

130.3

Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.

2040: P10 96.8 · P50 130.3 · P90 160.6

Methodology: scenario construction →