Overview / Scenarios

Scenario Explorer

Eight different futures for Norway out to 2040 — each a 'what if things go this way' line. They're possibilities, not predictions.Eight scenarios for Norway's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.Eight scenario trajectories for Norway's CC to 2040 — each the P50 of a Monte-Carlo bounded-growth model under distinct assumptions about diffusion rate, governance, and concentration. Scenarios, not probabilistic forecasts.

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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.

CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)

ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence

Conservative

70.1

Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.

2040: P10 68.1 · P50 70.1 · P90 71.8

Baseline

81.1

Current trajectories continue at observed rates.

2040: P10 76.3 · P50 81.1 · P90 85.1

Acceleration

103.1

Capability and adoption compound faster than today.

2040: P10 93.6 · P50 103.1 · P90 112.6

Elite Divergence

96.5

Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.

2040: P10 86.4 · P50 96.5 · P90 106.2

Democratization

93.5

Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.

2040: P10 85.9 · P50 93.5 · P90 99.9

Open-Source Dominance

98.8

Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.

2040: P10 89.7 · P50 98.8 · P90 108.2

Regulatory Constriction

67.5

Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.

2040: P10 66.0 · P50 67.5 · P90 68.9

AGI Emergence

146.3

Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.

2040: P10 117.4 · P50 146.3 · P90 180.9

Methodology: scenario construction →