Overview / Scenarios

Scenario Explorer

Eight different futures for Netherlands out to 2040 — each a 'what if things go this way' line. They're possibilities, not predictions.Eight scenarios for Netherlands's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.Eight scenario trajectories for Netherlands's CC to 2040 — each the P50 of a Monte-Carlo bounded-growth model under distinct assumptions about diffusion rate, governance, and concentration. Scenarios, not probabilistic forecasts.

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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.

CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)

ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence

Conservative

76.2

Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.

2040: P10 74.1 · P50 76.2 · P90 78.1

Baseline

87.6

Current trajectories continue at observed rates.

2040: P10 82.9 · P50 87.6 · P90 92.0

Acceleration

112.3

Capability and adoption compound faster than today.

2040: P10 100.7 · P50 112.3 · P90 123.0

Elite Divergence

109.5

Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.

2040: P10 97.3 · P50 109.5 · P90 121.4

Democratization

94.9

Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.

2040: P10 88.9 · P50 94.9 · P90 101.3

Open-Source Dominance

101.5

Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.

2040: P10 93.1 · P50 101.5 · P90 109.5

Regulatory Constriction

73.0

Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.

2040: P10 71.5 · P50 73.0 · P90 74.4

AGI Emergence

170.6

Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.

2040: P10 129.3 · P50 170.6 · P90 210.9

Methodology: scenario construction →