Overview / Scenarios

Scenario Explorer

Eight different futures for Nigeria out to 2040 — each a 'what if things go this way' line. They're possibilities, not predictions.Eight scenarios for Nigeria's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.Eight scenario trajectories for Nigeria's CC to 2040 — each the P50 of a Monte-Carlo bounded-growth model under distinct assumptions about diffusion rate, governance, and concentration. Scenarios, not probabilistic forecasts.

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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.

CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)

ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence

Conservative

18.9

Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.

2040: P10 17.5 · P50 18.9 · P90 19.9

Baseline

26.8

Current trajectories continue at observed rates.

2040: P10 24.0 · P50 26.8 · P90 29.9

Acceleration

39.7

Capability and adoption compound faster than today.

2040: P10 32.4 · P50 39.7 · P90 46.5

Elite Divergence

23.7

Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.

2040: P10 20.7 · P50 23.7 · P90 26.4

Democratization

46.4

Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.

2040: P10 38.9 · P50 46.4 · P90 54.7

Open-Source Dominance

49.8

Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.

2040: P10 41.5 · P50 49.8 · P90 59.0

Regulatory Constriction

18.1

Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.

2040: P10 16.8 · P50 18.1 · P90 19.2

AGI Emergence

41.1

Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.

2040: P10 30.3 · P50 41.1 · P90 50.6

Methodology: scenario construction →