Scenario Explorer
Eight different futures for South Korea out to 2040 — each a 'what if things go this way' line. They're possibilities, not predictions.Eight scenarios for South Korea's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.Eight scenario trajectories for South Korea's CC to 2040 — each the P50 of a Monte-Carlo bounded-growth model under distinct assumptions about diffusion rate, governance, and concentration. Scenarios, not probabilistic forecasts.
CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)
Conservative
84.4Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.
Baseline
97.1Current trajectories continue at observed rates.
Acceleration
125.9Capability and adoption compound faster than today.
Elite Divergence
128.8Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.
Democratization
102.2Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.
Open-Source Dominance
110.1Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.
Regulatory Constriction
80.4Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.
AGI Emergence
204.4Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.
Methodology: scenario construction →