Overview / Scenarios

Scenario Explorer

Eight different futures for Kenya out to 2040 — each a 'what if things go this way' line. They're possibilities, not predictions.Eight scenarios for Kenya's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.Eight scenario trajectories for Kenya's CC to 2040 — each the P50 of a Monte-Carlo bounded-growth model under distinct assumptions about diffusion rate, governance, and concentration. Scenarios, not probabilistic forecasts.

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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.

CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)

ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence

Conservative

22.2

Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.

2040: P10 20.9 · P50 22.2 · P90 23.3

Baseline

30.1

Current trajectories continue at observed rates.

2040: P10 27.1 · P50 30.1 · P90 32.8

Acceleration

44.9

Capability and adoption compound faster than today.

2040: P10 38.1 · P50 44.9 · P90 51.3

Elite Divergence

27.7

Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.

2040: P10 24.4 · P50 27.7 · P90 30.8

Democratization

51.6

Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.

2040: P10 42.4 · P50 51.6 · P90 59.2

Open-Source Dominance

53.5

Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.

2040: P10 44.7 · P50 53.5 · P90 63.1

Regulatory Constriction

21.3

Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.

2040: P10 20.1 · P50 21.3 · P90 22.4

AGI Emergence

45.1

Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.

2040: P10 33.8 · P50 45.1 · P90 56.5

Methodology: scenario construction →