Scenario Explorer
Eight different futures for Japan out to 2040 — each a 'what if things go this way' line. They're possibilities, not predictions.Eight scenarios for Japan's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.Eight scenario trajectories for Japan's CC to 2040 — each the P50 of a Monte-Carlo bounded-growth model under distinct assumptions about diffusion rate, governance, and concentration. Scenarios, not probabilistic forecasts.
CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)
Conservative
72.5Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.
Baseline
83.7Current trajectories continue at observed rates.
Acceleration
106.8Capability and adoption compound faster than today.
Elite Divergence
101.0Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.
Democratization
95.8Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.
Open-Source Dominance
100.9Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.
Regulatory Constriction
69.7Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.
AGI Emergence
156.2Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.
Methodology: scenario construction →