Overview / Scenarios

Scenario Explorer

Eight different futures for Italy out to 2040 — each a 'what if things go this way' line. They're possibilities, not predictions.Eight scenarios for Italy's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.Eight scenario trajectories for Italy's CC to 2040 — each the P50 of a Monte-Carlo bounded-growth model under distinct assumptions about diffusion rate, governance, and concentration. Scenarios, not probabilistic forecasts.

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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.

CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)

ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence

Conservative

60.8

Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.

2040: P10 59.0 · P50 60.8 · P90 62.2

Baseline

70.9

Current trajectories continue at observed rates.

2040: P10 66.7 · P50 70.9 · P90 74.8

Acceleration

92.0

Capability and adoption compound faster than today.

2040: P10 81.9 · P50 92.0 · P90 101.2

Elite Divergence

80.7

Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.

2040: P10 73.3 · P50 80.7 · P90 88.2

Democratization

86.4

Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.

2040: P10 79.0 · P50 86.4 · P90 93.9

Open-Source Dominance

90.7

Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.

2040: P10 81.4 · P50 90.7 · P90 101.2

Regulatory Constriction

58.7

Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.

2040: P10 57.3 · P50 58.7 · P90 59.8

AGI Emergence

121.2

Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.

2040: P10 92.1 · P50 121.2 · P90 148.7

Methodology: scenario construction →