Overview / Scenarios

Scenario Explorer

Eight different futures for Israel out to 2040 — each a 'what if things go this way' line. They're possibilities, not predictions.Eight scenarios for Israel's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.Eight scenario trajectories for Israel's CC to 2040 — each the P50 of a Monte-Carlo bounded-growth model under distinct assumptions about diffusion rate, governance, and concentration. Scenarios, not probabilistic forecasts.

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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.

CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)

ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence

Conservative

75.7

Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.

2040: P10 73.0 · P50 75.7 · P90 77.9

Baseline

89.4

Current trajectories continue at observed rates.

2040: P10 83.2 · P50 89.4 · P90 94.8

Acceleration

117.9

Capability and adoption compound faster than today.

2040: P10 103.2 · P50 117.9 · P90 131.4

Elite Divergence

114.3

Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.

2040: P10 100.4 · P50 114.3 · P90 128.7

Democratization

100.2

Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.

2040: P10 91.1 · P50 100.2 · P90 108.5

Open-Source Dominance

106.8

Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.

2040: P10 97.6 · P50 106.8 · P90 117.0

Regulatory Constriction

72.3

Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.

2040: P10 70.4 · P50 72.3 · P90 73.8

AGI Emergence

179.0

Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.

2040: P10 129.0 · P50 179.0 · P90 228.8

Methodology: scenario construction →