Overview / Scenarios

Scenario Explorer

Eight different futures for Ireland out to 2040 — each a 'what if things go this way' line. They're possibilities, not predictions.Eight scenarios for Ireland's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.Eight scenario trajectories for Ireland's CC to 2040 — each the P50 of a Monte-Carlo bounded-growth model under distinct assumptions about diffusion rate, governance, and concentration. Scenarios, not probabilistic forecasts.

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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.

CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)

ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence

Conservative

70.5

Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.

2040: P10 68.5 · P50 70.5 · P90 72.2

Baseline

81.5

Current trajectories continue at observed rates.

2040: P10 77.5 · P50 81.5 · P90 86.6

Acceleration

105.4

Capability and adoption compound faster than today.

2040: P10 94.2 · P50 105.4 · P90 114.8

Elite Divergence

98.7

Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.

2040: P10 88.3 · P50 98.7 · P90 109.6

Democratization

95.0

Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.

2040: P10 87.1 · P50 95.0 · P90 103.0

Open-Source Dominance

100.2

Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.

2040: P10 91.9 · P50 100.2 · P90 110.8

Regulatory Constriction

67.7

Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.

2040: P10 66.2 · P50 67.7 · P90 69.2

AGI Emergence

153.6

Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.

2040: P10 119.9 · P50 153.6 · P90 189.0

Methodology: scenario construction →