Overview / Scenarios

Scenario Explorer

Eight different futures for India out to 2040 — each a 'what if things go this way' line. They're possibilities, not predictions.Eight scenarios for India's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.Eight scenario trajectories for India's CC to 2040 — each the P50 of a Monte-Carlo bounded-growth model under distinct assumptions about diffusion rate, governance, and concentration. Scenarios, not probabilistic forecasts.

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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.

CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)

ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence

Conservative

48.2

Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.

2040: P10 46.3 · P50 48.2 · P90 49.8

Baseline

59.4

Current trajectories continue at observed rates.

2040: P10 55.0 · P50 59.4 · P90 64.0

Acceleration

79.4

Capability and adoption compound faster than today.

2040: P10 69.7 · P50 79.4 · P90 89.4

Elite Divergence

62.8

Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.

2040: P10 56.5 · P50 62.8 · P90 69.5

Democratization

82.0

Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.

2040: P10 71.7 · P50 82.0 · P90 91.9

Open-Source Dominance

85.8

Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.

2040: P10 75.3 · P50 85.8 · P90 97.5

Regulatory Constriction

46.5

Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.

2040: P10 45.1 · P50 46.5 · P90 47.9

AGI Emergence

98.5

Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.

2040: P10 72.9 · P50 98.5 · P90 117.7

Methodology: scenario construction →