Overview / Scenarios

Scenario Explorer

Eight different futures for Greece out to 2040 — each a 'what if things go this way' line. They're possibilities, not predictions.Eight scenarios for Greece's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.Eight scenario trajectories for Greece's CC to 2040 — each the P50 of a Monte-Carlo bounded-growth model under distinct assumptions about diffusion rate, governance, and concentration. Scenarios, not probabilistic forecasts.

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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.

CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)

ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence

Conservative

49.2

Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.

2040: P10 47.2 · P50 49.2 · P90 50.7

Baseline

59.3

Current trajectories continue at observed rates.

2040: P10 54.7 · P50 59.3 · P90 63.0

Acceleration

78.2

Capability and adoption compound faster than today.

2040: P10 69.6 · P50 78.2 · P90 88.4

Elite Divergence

64.3

Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.

2040: P10 58.3 · P50 64.3 · P90 71.2

Democratization

78.0

Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.

2040: P10 69.8 · P50 78.0 · P90 85.7

Open-Source Dominance

83.5

Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.

2040: P10 73.1 · P50 83.5 · P90 93.4

Regulatory Constriction

47.5

Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.

2040: P10 46.1 · P50 47.5 · P90 48.8

AGI Emergence

99.4

Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.

2040: P10 78.2 · P50 99.4 · P90 123.5

Methodology: scenario construction →