Overview / Scenarios

Scenario Explorer

Eight different futures for United Kingdom out to 2040 — each a 'what if things go this way' line. They're possibilities, not predictions.Eight scenarios for United Kingdom's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.Eight scenario trajectories for United Kingdom's CC to 2040 — each the P50 of a Monte-Carlo bounded-growth model under distinct assumptions about diffusion rate, governance, and concentration. Scenarios, not probabilistic forecasts.

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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.

CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)

ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence

Conservative

79.6

Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.

2040: P10 77.4 · P50 79.6 · P90 81.7

Baseline

91.7

Current trajectories continue at observed rates.

2040: P10 86.9 · P50 91.7 · P90 96.7

Acceleration

118.6

Capability and adoption compound faster than today.

2040: P10 105.8 · P50 118.6 · P90 129.7

Elite Divergence

120.5

Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.

2040: P10 104.9 · P50 120.5 · P90 134.8

Democratization

97.7

Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.

2040: P10 91.8 · P50 97.7 · P90 104.2

Open-Source Dominance

104.7

Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.

2040: P10 95.9 · P50 104.7 · P90 112.9

Regulatory Constriction

76.0

Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.

2040: P10 74.4 · P50 76.0 · P90 77.3

AGI Emergence

188.5

Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.

2040: P10 136.9 · P50 188.5 · P90 230.4

Methodology: scenario construction →