Overview / Scenarios

Scenario Explorer

Eight different futures for France out to 2040 — each a 'what if things go this way' line. They're possibilities, not predictions.Eight scenarios for France's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.Eight scenario trajectories for France's CC to 2040 — each the P50 of a Monte-Carlo bounded-growth model under distinct assumptions about diffusion rate, governance, and concentration. Scenarios, not probabilistic forecasts.

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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.

CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)

ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence

Conservative

73.7

Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.

2040: P10 71.5 · P50 73.7 · P90 75.4

Baseline

85.2

Current trajectories continue at observed rates.

2040: P10 80.4 · P50 85.2 · P90 90.5

Acceleration

109.4

Capability and adoption compound faster than today.

2040: P10 97.7 · P50 109.4 · P90 119.6

Elite Divergence

104.7

Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.

2040: P10 91.7 · P50 104.7 · P90 114.7

Democratization

96.3

Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.

2040: P10 89.4 · P50 96.3 · P90 104.6

Open-Source Dominance

103.2

Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.

2040: P10 93.3 · P50 103.2 · P90 113.7

Regulatory Constriction

70.8

Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.

2040: P10 69.1 · P50 70.8 · P90 72.2

AGI Emergence

161.2

Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.

2040: P10 125.2 · P50 161.2 · P90 199.7

Methodology: scenario construction →