Overview / Scenarios

Scenario Explorer

Eight different futures for Finland out to 2040 — each a 'what if things go this way' line. They're possibilities, not predictions.Eight scenarios for Finland's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.Eight scenario trajectories for Finland's CC to 2040 — each the P50 of a Monte-Carlo bounded-growth model under distinct assumptions about diffusion rate, governance, and concentration. Scenarios, not probabilistic forecasts.

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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.

CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)

ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence

Conservative

74.2

Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.

2040: P10 71.9 · P50 74.2 · P90 76.0

Baseline

86.1

Current trajectories continue at observed rates.

2040: P10 81.2 · P50 86.1 · P90 90.6

Acceleration

110.4

Capability and adoption compound faster than today.

2040: P10 99.0 · P50 110.4 · P90 122.5

Elite Divergence

105.9

Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.

2040: P10 95.3 · P50 105.9 · P90 118.8

Democratization

96.8

Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.

2040: P10 89.7 · P50 96.8 · P90 103.9

Open-Source Dominance

102.0

Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.

2040: P10 92.2 · P50 102.0 · P90 111.5

Regulatory Constriction

71.1

Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.

2040: P10 69.5 · P50 71.1 · P90 72.5

AGI Emergence

163.5

Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.

2040: P10 126.8 · P50 163.5 · P90 201.0

Methodology: scenario construction →