Overview / Scenarios

Scenario Explorer

Eight different futures for Estonia out to 2040 — each a 'what if things go this way' line. They're possibilities, not predictions.Eight scenarios for Estonia's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.Eight scenario trajectories for Estonia's CC to 2040 — each the P50 of a Monte-Carlo bounded-growth model under distinct assumptions about diffusion rate, governance, and concentration. Scenarios, not probabilistic forecasts.

▲

Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.

CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)

ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence

Conservative

64.7

Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.

2040: P10 62.7 · P50 64.7 · P90 66.4

Baseline

75.3

Current trajectories continue at observed rates.

2040: P10 70.8 · P50 75.3 · P90 79.6

Acceleration

97.2

Capability and adoption compound faster than today.

2040: P10 87.7 · P50 97.2 · P90 107.0

Elite Divergence

88.3

Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.

2040: P10 79.2 · P50 88.3 · P90 96.6

Democratization

89.7

Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.

2040: P10 81.0 · P50 89.7 · P90 97.5

Open-Source Dominance

95.3

Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.

2040: P10 85.4 · P50 95.3 · P90 105.0

Regulatory Constriction

62.4

Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.

2040: P10 60.8 · P50 62.4 · P90 63.6

AGI Emergence

133.7

Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.

2040: P10 103.3 · P50 133.7 · P90 166.7

Methodology: scenario construction →