Overview / Scenarios

Scenario Explorer

Eight different futures for Egypt out to 2040 — each a 'what if things go this way' line. They're possibilities, not predictions.Eight scenarios for Egypt's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.Eight scenario trajectories for Egypt's CC to 2040 — each the P50 of a Monte-Carlo bounded-growth model under distinct assumptions about diffusion rate, governance, and concentration. Scenarios, not probabilistic forecasts.

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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.

CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)

ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence

Conservative

32.7

Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.

2040: P10 31.4 · P50 32.7 · P90 33.8

Baseline

41.5

Current trajectories continue at observed rates.

2040: P10 38.2 · P50 41.5 · P90 44.9

Acceleration

56.8

Capability and adoption compound faster than today.

2040: P10 48.5 · P50 56.8 · P90 64.4

Elite Divergence

39.5

Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.

2040: P10 36.3 · P50 39.5 · P90 43.1

Democratization

62.4

Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.

2040: P10 53.8 · P50 62.4 · P90 71.7

Open-Source Dominance

65.9

Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.

2040: P10 55.1 · P50 65.9 · P90 76.2

Regulatory Constriction

31.7

Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.

2040: P10 30.3 · P50 31.7 · P90 32.8

AGI Emergence

61.0

Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.

2040: P10 48.8 · P50 61.0 · P90 74.6

Methodology: scenario construction →