Overview / Scenarios

Scenario Explorer

Eight different futures for Denmark out to 2040 — each a 'what if things go this way' line. They're possibilities, not predictions.Eight scenarios for Denmark's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.Eight scenario trajectories for Denmark's CC to 2040 — each the P50 of a Monte-Carlo bounded-growth model under distinct assumptions about diffusion rate, governance, and concentration. Scenarios, not probabilistic forecasts.

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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.

CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)

ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence

Conservative

74.6

Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.

2040: P10 72.5 · P50 74.6 · P90 76.4

Baseline

86.1

Current trajectories continue at observed rates.

2040: P10 81.4 · P50 86.1 · P90 90.4

Acceleration

111.0

Capability and adoption compound faster than today.

2040: P10 100.1 · P50 111.0 · P90 121.4

Elite Divergence

107.7

Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.

2040: P10 96.3 · P50 107.7 · P90 120.7

Democratization

95.2

Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.

2040: P10 88.4 · P50 95.2 · P90 101.2

Open-Source Dominance

100.9

Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.

2040: P10 91.2 · P50 100.9 · P90 110.5

Regulatory Constriction

71.5

Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.

2040: P10 69.9 · P50 71.5 · P90 72.8

AGI Emergence

173.1

Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.

2040: P10 126.6 · P50 173.1 · P90 212.8

Methodology: scenario construction →