Overview / Scenarios

Scenario Explorer

Eight different futures for Germany out to 2040 — each a 'what if things go this way' line. They're possibilities, not predictions.Eight scenarios for Germany's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.Eight scenario trajectories for Germany's CC to 2040 — each the P50 of a Monte-Carlo bounded-growth model under distinct assumptions about diffusion rate, governance, and concentration. Scenarios, not probabilistic forecasts.

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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.

CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)

ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence

Conservative

79.4

Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.

2040: P10 77.0 · P50 79.4 · P90 81.5

Baseline

91.6

Current trajectories continue at observed rates.

2040: P10 86.3 · P50 91.6 · P90 96.1

Acceleration

118.6

Capability and adoption compound faster than today.

2040: P10 104.6 · P50 118.6 · P90 131.5

Elite Divergence

118.5

Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.

2040: P10 104.3 · P50 118.5 · P90 131.7

Democratization

97.3

Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.

2040: P10 90.5 · P50 97.3 · P90 103.6

Open-Source Dominance

104.1

Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.

2040: P10 95.2 · P50 104.1 · P90 112.6

Regulatory Constriction

75.8

Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.

2040: P10 74.0 · P50 75.8 · P90 77.2

AGI Emergence

188.5

Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.

2040: P10 135.8 · P50 188.5 · P90 235.5

Methodology: scenario construction →