Overview / Scenarios

Scenario Explorer

Eight different futures for Czechia out to 2040 — each a 'what if things go this way' line. They're possibilities, not predictions.Eight scenarios for Czechia's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.Eight scenario trajectories for Czechia's CC to 2040 — each the P50 of a Monte-Carlo bounded-growth model under distinct assumptions about diffusion rate, governance, and concentration. Scenarios, not probabilistic forecasts.

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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.

CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)

ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence

Conservative

59.7

Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.

2040: P10 58.0 · P50 59.7 · P90 61.3

Baseline

69.8

Current trajectories continue at observed rates.

2040: P10 65.6 · P50 69.8 · P90 73.8

Acceleration

90.5

Capability and adoption compound faster than today.

2040: P10 80.4 · P50 90.5 · P90 100.5

Elite Divergence

79.4

Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.

2040: P10 71.1 · P50 79.4 · P90 86.8

Democratization

86.1

Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.

2040: P10 77.3 · P50 86.1 · P90 94.6

Open-Source Dominance

90.7

Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.

2040: P10 80.2 · P50 90.7 · P90 100.1

Regulatory Constriction

57.5

Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.

2040: P10 56.1 · P50 57.5 · P90 59.0

AGI Emergence

118.6

Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.

2040: P10 94.0 · P50 118.6 · P90 143.0

Methodology: scenario construction →