Overview / Scenarios

Scenario Explorer

Eight different futures for Colombia out to 2040 — each a 'what if things go this way' line. They're possibilities, not predictions.Eight scenarios for Colombia's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.Eight scenario trajectories for Colombia's CC to 2040 — each the P50 of a Monte-Carlo bounded-growth model under distinct assumptions about diffusion rate, governance, and concentration. Scenarios, not probabilistic forecasts.

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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.

CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)

ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence

Conservative

37.3

Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.

2040: P10 35.8 · P50 37.3 · P90 38.4

Baseline

46.0

Current trajectories continue at observed rates.

2040: P10 42.7 · P50 46.0 · P90 49.0

Acceleration

62.8

Capability and adoption compound faster than today.

2040: P10 53.7 · P50 62.8 · P90 70.3

Elite Divergence

45.1

Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.

2040: P10 41.2 · P50 45.1 · P90 48.6

Democratization

67.4

Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.

2040: P10 58.2 · P50 67.4 · P90 74.6

Open-Source Dominance

69.7

Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.

2040: P10 59.9 · P50 69.7 · P90 80.3

Regulatory Constriction

36.1

Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.

2040: P10 34.9 · P50 36.1 · P90 37.3

AGI Emergence

67.6

Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.

2040: P10 55.0 · P50 67.6 · P90 82.1

Methodology: scenario construction →