Overview / Scenarios

Scenario Explorer

Eight different futures for Chile out to 2040 — each a 'what if things go this way' line. They're possibilities, not predictions.Eight scenarios for Chile's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.Eight scenario trajectories for Chile's CC to 2040 — each the P50 of a Monte-Carlo bounded-growth model under distinct assumptions about diffusion rate, governance, and concentration. Scenarios, not probabilistic forecasts.

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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.

CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)

ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence

Conservative

47.6

Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.

2040: P10 46.1 · P50 47.6 · P90 48.9

Baseline

57.3

Current trajectories continue at observed rates.

2040: P10 53.3 · P50 57.3 · P90 61.0

Acceleration

74.4

Capability and adoption compound faster than today.

2040: P10 65.3 · P50 74.4 · P90 83.7

Elite Divergence

60.7

Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.

2040: P10 55.1 · P50 60.7 · P90 66.2

Democratization

76.4

Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.

2040: P10 67.5 · P50 76.4 · P90 83.7

Open-Source Dominance

80.0

Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.

2040: P10 70.0 · P50 80.0 · P90 89.9

Regulatory Constriction

46.0

Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.

2040: P10 44.6 · P50 46.0 · P90 47.2

AGI Emergence

91.7

Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.

2040: P10 70.4 · P50 91.7 · P90 110.1

Methodology: scenario construction →