Overview / Scenarios

Scenario Explorer

Eight different futures for Switzerland out to 2040 — each a 'what if things go this way' line. They're possibilities, not predictions.Eight scenarios for Switzerland's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.Eight scenario trajectories for Switzerland's CC to 2040 — each the P50 of a Monte-Carlo bounded-growth model under distinct assumptions about diffusion rate, governance, and concentration. Scenarios, not probabilistic forecasts.

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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.

CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)

ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence

Conservative

77.0

Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.

2040: P10 74.8 · P50 77.0 · P90 79.1

Baseline

88.8

Current trajectories continue at observed rates.

2040: P10 83.2 · P50 88.8 · P90 94.1

Acceleration

113.5

Capability and adoption compound faster than today.

2040: P10 100.8 · P50 113.5 · P90 124.8

Elite Divergence

113.4

Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.

2040: P10 99.2 · P50 113.4 · P90 125.9

Democratization

95.5

Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.

2040: P10 88.4 · P50 95.5 · P90 102.5

Open-Source Dominance

102.7

Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.

2040: P10 93.1 · P50 102.7 · P90 111.5

Regulatory Constriction

73.7

Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.

2040: P10 72.1 · P50 73.7 · P90 75.1

AGI Emergence

176.3

Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.

2040: P10 127.8 · P50 176.3 · P90 217.3

Methodology: scenario construction →