Overview / Scenarios

Scenario Explorer

Eight different futures for Canada out to 2040 — each a 'what if things go this way' line. They're possibilities, not predictions.Eight scenarios for Canada's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.Eight scenario trajectories for Canada's CC to 2040 — each the P50 of a Monte-Carlo bounded-growth model under distinct assumptions about diffusion rate, governance, and concentration. Scenarios, not probabilistic forecasts.

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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.

CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)

ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence

Conservative

74.2

Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.

2040: P10 72.1 · P50 74.2 · P90 76.0

Baseline

85.9

Current trajectories continue at observed rates.

2040: P10 80.7 · P50 85.9 · P90 90.2

Acceleration

110.6

Capability and adoption compound faster than today.

2040: P10 97.6 · P50 110.6 · P90 123.0

Elite Divergence

105.4

Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.

2040: P10 92.9 · P50 105.4 · P90 117.3

Democratization

97.7

Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.

2040: P10 90.0 · P50 97.7 · P90 104.2

Open-Source Dominance

103.7

Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.

2040: P10 92.5 · P50 103.7 · P90 114.2

Regulatory Constriction

71.1

Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.

2040: P10 69.4 · P50 71.1 · P90 72.7

AGI Emergence

165.3

Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.

2040: P10 124.1 · P50 165.3 · P90 203.8

Methodology: scenario construction →