Overview / Scenarios

Scenario Explorer

Eight different futures for Brazil out to 2040 — each a 'what if things go this way' line. They're possibilities, not predictions.Eight scenarios for Brazil's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.Eight scenario trajectories for Brazil's CC to 2040 — each the P50 of a Monte-Carlo bounded-growth model under distinct assumptions about diffusion rate, governance, and concentration. Scenarios, not probabilistic forecasts.

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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.

CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)

ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence

Conservative

47.7

Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.

2040: P10 46.1 · P50 47.7 · P90 49.0

Baseline

57.6

Current trajectories continue at observed rates.

2040: P10 53.9 · P50 57.6 · P90 61.0

Acceleration

76.4

Capability and adoption compound faster than today.

2040: P10 66.9 · P50 76.4 · P90 84.3

Elite Divergence

61.9

Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.

2040: P10 56.4 · P50 61.9 · P90 67.7

Democratization

76.8

Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.

2040: P10 69.3 · P50 76.8 · P90 85.0

Open-Source Dominance

81.5

Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.

2040: P10 71.7 · P50 81.5 · P90 90.9

Regulatory Constriction

46.1

Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.

2040: P10 44.5 · P50 46.1 · P90 47.3

AGI Emergence

93.3

Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.

2040: P10 72.6 · P50 93.3 · P90 114.0

Methodology: scenario construction →