Overview / Scenarios

Scenario Explorer

Eight different futures for Australia out to 2040 — each a 'what if things go this way' line. They're possibilities, not predictions.Eight scenarios for Australia's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.Eight scenario trajectories for Australia's CC to 2040 — each the P50 of a Monte-Carlo bounded-growth model under distinct assumptions about diffusion rate, governance, and concentration. Scenarios, not probabilistic forecasts.

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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.

CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)

ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence

Conservative

70.1

Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.

2040: P10 68.3 · P50 70.1 · P90 71.9

Baseline

81.3

Current trajectories continue at observed rates.

2040: P10 77.2 · P50 81.3 · P90 85.8

Acceleration

103.4

Capability and adoption compound faster than today.

2040: P10 93.6 · P50 103.4 · P90 114.7

Elite Divergence

97.3

Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.

2040: P10 86.8 · P50 97.3 · P90 106.7

Democratization

95.1

Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.

2040: P10 85.9 · P50 95.1 · P90 103.2

Open-Source Dominance

100.9

Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.

2040: P10 91.1 · P50 100.9 · P90 111.3

Regulatory Constriction

67.4

Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.

2040: P10 65.7 · P50 67.4 · P90 68.8

AGI Emergence

150.1

Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.

2040: P10 117.4 · P50 150.1 · P90 180.1

Methodology: scenario construction →