Overview / Scenarios

Scenario Explorer

Eight different futures for Argentina out to 2040 — each a 'what if things go this way' line. They're possibilities, not predictions.Eight scenarios for Argentina's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.Eight scenario trajectories for Argentina's CC to 2040 — each the P50 of a Monte-Carlo bounded-growth model under distinct assumptions about diffusion rate, governance, and concentration. Scenarios, not probabilistic forecasts.

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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.

CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)

ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence

Conservative

44.0

Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.

2040: P10 42.4 · P50 44.0 · P90 45.4

Baseline

53.4

Current trajectories continue at observed rates.

2040: P10 49.0 · P50 53.4 · P90 56.5

Acceleration

70.7

Capability and adoption compound faster than today.

2040: P10 62.5 · P50 70.7 · P90 79.7

Elite Divergence

55.5

Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.

2040: P10 50.2 · P50 55.5 · P90 60.5

Democratization

72.7

Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.

2040: P10 64.4 · P50 72.7 · P90 81.1

Open-Source Dominance

77.5

Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.

2040: P10 66.5 · P50 77.5 · P90 87.3

Regulatory Constriction

42.5

Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.

2040: P10 41.2 · P50 42.5 · P90 43.9

AGI Emergence

82.8

Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.

2040: P10 64.9 · P50 82.8 · P90 102.5

Methodology: scenario construction →