Overview / Scenarios

Scenario Explorer

Eight different futures for United Arab Emirates out to 2040 — each a 'what if things go this way' line. They're possibilities, not predictions.Eight scenarios for United Arab Emirates's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.Eight scenario trajectories for United Arab Emirates's CC to 2040 — each the P50 of a Monte-Carlo bounded-growth model under distinct assumptions about diffusion rate, governance, and concentration. Scenarios, not probabilistic forecasts.

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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.

CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)

ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence

Conservative

65.9

Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.

2040: P10 63.9 · P50 65.9 · P90 67.4

Baseline

76.9

Current trajectories continue at observed rates.

2040: P10 72.7 · P50 76.9 · P90 81.3

Acceleration

98.6

Capability and adoption compound faster than today.

2040: P10 88.2 · P50 98.6 · P90 108.2

Elite Divergence

89.7

Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.

2040: P10 80.4 · P50 89.7 · P90 99.6

Democratization

91.5

Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.

2040: P10 83.6 · P50 91.5 · P90 99.1

Open-Source Dominance

97.0

Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.

2040: P10 87.3 · P50 97.0 · P90 107.1

Regulatory Constriction

63.3

Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.

2040: P10 61.7 · P50 63.3 · P90 64.7

AGI Emergence

136.9

Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.

2040: P10 106.2 · P50 136.9 · P90 171.8

Methodology: scenario construction →